JSC Guaranteed Buyer has scheduled two auctions on 25 September 2026 for allocation of 2026 support quotas: 50 MW conventional solar PV (max bid €0.08/kWh) and 100 MW solar PV + ESS (max bid €0.12/kWh). Bids close 24 September. Projects…
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JSC Guaranteed Buyer has scheduled two auctions on 25 September 2026 for allocation of 2026 support quotas: 50 MW conventional solar PV (max bid €0.08/kWh) and 100 MW solar PV + ESS (max bid €0.12/kWh). Bids close 24 September. Projects eligible in multiple central and western-adjacent regions including Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Poltava. Storage must meet 80% power and 2 kWh/kW capacity rules; premium not paid 12:00-13:59.
Why it matters
Direct origination window for 5-100 MW hybrid solar+BESS projects under market premium mechanism. Higher price cap for hybrids improves bankability of flexibility assets needed for grid balancing amid ongoing Russian attacks. Eligible regions overlap with lower-security western/central zones preferred by investors.
External Power Restored to Zaporizhzhia NPP After Nearly Three Weeks on Diesel Generators
Security / AttacksGeneration
On 7 September at 19:02, Ukrainian energy specialists restored external power supply to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant via the 330 kV Ferosplavna-1 line following an IAEA-brokered local ceasefire that enabled…
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On 7 September at 19:02, Ukrainian energy specialists restored external power supply to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant via the 330 kV Ferosplavna-1 line following an IAEA-brokered local ceasefire that enabled repairs. The plant, Europe’s largest, had been without off-site power since 20 August and relied solely on emergency diesel generators for critical cooling and safety systems; it is now consuming approximately 11 MW. IAEA Director General Grossi described the reconnection as a crucial step to prevent a nuclear accident.
Why it matters
Although the plant remains offline for generation and under occupation, the successful restoration reduces acute nuclear safety risk that could otherwise cascade into broader European energy and insurance market disruptions. For renewable and flexibility project originators it reinforces the operational competence of Ukrainian TSOs and repair crews under fire, supporting bankability narratives for western/central distributed solar, wind and BESS assets that depend on a functioning national system operator and credible winter preparedness.
Ukraine posts highest monthly electricity exports since Sept 2025, remains net exporter in August
Market & PricingGenerationGrid & Transmission
In August 2026 Ukraine exported 380.9 GWh (+63.8% MoM), the highest monthly volume since September 2025, while importing 184 GWh. Net exports nearly doubled imports for the second consecutive month. Main destinations: Hungary 45%, Moldova…
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In August 2026 Ukraine exported 380.9 GWh (+63.8% MoM), the highest monthly volume since September 2025, while importing 184 GWh. Net exports nearly doubled imports for the second consecutive month. Main destinations: Hungary 45%, Moldova 29%, Romania 19%. Driven by strong solar output and milder demand after summer heat peaks.
Why it matters
Sustained net-export position and solar-driven surplus signal improved system balance and higher value for flexible generation/storage that can capture peak export windows or avoid curtailment. Supports merchant and hybrid offtake models for new RE projects in western interconnect corridors.
Priority reflects the daily editorial ranking. Evidence codes combine source reliability (A–F) and information credibility (1–4). Dates, summaries and assessments come from the Daily Energy Intelligence Brief.
Investment intelligence
Explore the project pipeline
Public pipelineUpdated 10 Sept 2026, 01:46 · Latest data change 10 Sept 2026, 01:21
Public project records82approved for the public viewScreening records20linked only to public projectsPublic sources71cleared for public usePriority diligence6screening decision · no disqualifier
Pipeline heatmap — oblast × technology
Public project records by broad region and technology. Individual projects, owners and exact locations remain in the gated data room.
Solar PV
Onshore Wind
Solar + BESS
Small Hydro
Other
Cherkasy
9
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Chernivtsi
2
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·
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Ivano-Frankivsk
12
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Khmelnytskyi
·
1
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1
Kirovohrad
1
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5
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Kyiv
11
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2
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Lviv
6
2
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1
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Poltava
·
·
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4
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Ternopil
1
2
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1
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Unspecified
·
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1
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Vinnytsia
3
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Volyn
·
3
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Zakarpattia
2
9
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1
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Zhytomyr
·
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1
1
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112 records
Only projects marked Public. Unspecified geography stays unlocated. A project with multiple technology tags appears in each applicable column; totals count unique project records.
Public-source context layer: internationally documented plants ≥ 100 MW (Wikidata) and the 750/330 kV transmission backbone (OpenStreetMap). Oblast shading uses the Notion pipeline; plants and grid geometry are a separate dated geographic snapshot.
Layers
NuclearHydro & pumped storageThermalWindSolar750 kV330 kVPipeline: unique records per oblast500 MW1,500 MW3,000 MW
Coordinates are rounded (plants ~1 km, lines ~110 m) and geometries simplified; operational status and war-damage data are not collected or shown. Pipeline shading mirrors the aggregated heatmap counts above — never project-level positions.
From universe to actionable pipeline
Screening decisions and contact-coverage counts from Notion. Numerical project scores remain private until project-specific evidence is verified.
Screenings may share a project. A verified contact path is not evidence of transaction readiness. Contact identities remain private.
Indicative revenue explorer
Select a technology, scenario and project size. Price bands use separate model assumptions, not live Notion prices; capture and capacity factors are stated explicitly.
Technology
Scenario
50 MW
Indicative capture price€49–55/MWh2030s→2040s · P10–P90 €41–68 CF 32%, capture factor 0.90Indicative revenue€6.9–7.7m / yr140 GWh/yr at stated capacity and capture factorsCurtailment riskMediumGrowing surplus periods under this scenario Scenario-level indicator
Notion contains 17 public project records in this segment, with 7 screenings and 5 in priority diligence. These counts do not establish investability. Project names, owners, rights and contact paths remain in the mandate view.
Ukraine Power Market — Scenario Explorer 2026–2055
Simplified annual-balance model. Adjust the complete set of levers or pick a preset; generation mix, price, trade balance, hourly flexibility and key figures update instantly.
⚠ Evidence Grade C · illustrative model
Subjective analyst prior: Fast End of War & EU Integration 10%Electrification & Net Zero 5%Baseline 25%Delayed Reconstruction 25%Frozen Conflict 25%Protracted War 10%
2035: 5,603 surplus hours · 2.5 TWh battery discharge · storage shown as a synthetic 8,760-hour profile.
Model Insights
Statements about this model and its assumptions — not forecasts.
ZNPP is primarily an export lever in this annual-balance model, not a large domestic price lever.
Demand is the strongest cliff risk: electrification without matching build-out creates visible supply gaps.
Interconnector expansion is mainly an export-revenue lever; annual balancing understates hourly security value.
High WACC acts like a persistent power-price surcharge, making guarantees and war-risk insurance system levers.
Wind produces materially more annual energy than solar at the same capacity build rate; decentralisation and security can still favour solar.
Storage reduces import need and hourly residual load, but cannot eliminate an annual energy surplus on its own.
The ETS price raises the modelled price but does not endogenously trigger investment in this model — a deliberate limitation.
Assumptions & Methodology
The annual model balances demand against nuclear, hydro, solar, wind and minimum CHP first; residual load is met by coal, gas and imports. Remaining unmet demand is a deficit. Demand begins at roughly 70% of the rounded 150 TWh pre-war level and converges toward the selected target after the war.
Existing fleet assumptions: 7.7 GW available nuclear excluding ZNPP, 10 TWh hydro, coal up to 22 TWh, gas/CHP up to 18 TWh, 4.5 GW effective solar and 1 GW effective wind. Internal grid constraints and plant-level dispatch are outside scope.
Battery systems use four-hour duration, roughly 330 cycles and 88% round-trip efficiency. The hourly module uses synthetic seasonal and diurnal profiles; it does not feed back into the annual model.
The uncertainty band varies war end, demand, fuel price, renewable build-out, price anchor, ETS timing, interconnectors, WACC and permanent risk premium around the selected case with a fixed seed.
Request the screening teaser
The public view stops at aggregates. The gated layer is where origination and diligence begin.
Anonymised sample screening card with evidence grade, critical path, red flags and origination action.
Prioritised opportunity funnel with timing, strategic relevance, kill criteria and next action.
Regulatory and market pathway connecting projects to grid, permits, financing and scenario exposure.
Response within one business day. Exact coordinates, sensitive grid data and restricted fields are never shared outside mandated engagements.
Methodology & governance
News layer: dated briefs, source links and relevance assessments from the editorial Notion database. Brief dates and Admiralty codes reflect the database entries.
Public pipeline: aggregated counts, broad regions, technology mix and scenario ranges. Records marked non-public, exact coordinates, contact paths and detailed grid information are excluded by design.
Model layer: scenario outputs are Evidence Grade C — credible analysis, not fact. Attractiveness and evidence quality remain separate. Not investment advice.
Mandate layer: verified project identity, location, rights, grid status, sources, kill criteria and next actions are disclosed only after qualification.